By Jimmy Twist
MBARARA
Account down to the eve of the polling date on January 14, 2021, spells out doom on incumbent MPs if they don’t step up their games in the remaining 8 days to the polling day chances are high that Ankole region is likely to have new faces in the 11th Parliament as opposed to the old faces.
In our first sample analytical series on Who is likely to carry the day in the Ankole region politics for National representation MP race our findings indicate that incumbents may win with a small margin that’s if they double their efforts and if not they are likely to lose to the new faces on the block with a big margin as reflected in this spreadsheet analysis.
In Ibanda District, the District Woman MP race is not going down well with rival Jane Bainomugisha little is known about her, a mere perusal on her Facebook campaigning page there’s nearly no traffic and serious content to read about her, all you can find are complaints from those who would be genuine supporters to her saying know less about her though she stands out to be a better leader given opportunity.
Cliffe Mantondinho is an agent supporter of Bainomugisha but posted this on her Facebook page, “For sure you need to look for me and you tell me more about yourself via radio, you’re the best but on the ground, I haven’t felt you for sure, so we need to talk I beg to submit”.
In her response to Cliffe, Jane Bainomugisha concedes and says…, “Noted. Thanks”.
Bainomugisha’s response reveals uncertainty just to be polite doom! However, a sample analysis of her strength on the ground indicates that she’s likely to fetch only 37% against incumbent Hon. Joverlyn Karisa Kyomukama whom the poll indicates she’s likely to carry the day with 63% if she maintains the momentum and nothing changes in the remaining 8 days to the polling date on January 14th.
Off the female district race in Ibanda District, the race for the male in Ibanda South Constituency indicates that Kamugisha Emmanuel isn’t doing well despite the financial resources he has invested in the scientific campaigns. The poll indicates that if elections were held today he would lose with 15% to Panado Nimusiima whom the poll projects at 85% landslide victory.
In Sheema District, it’s a bubbling tight race between two giants Kateshumbwa Dicksons and Dr. Elioda Tumwesigye. Kateshumbwa initially served in Uganda Revenue Authority before he threw in the towel to join politics early last year while Dr. Elioda Tumwesigye holds the incumbent status for Sheema Municipality and a ministerial position in government.
Dr. Elioda Tumwesigye initially was the NRM flag bearer but in the just concluded NRM primaries last year, he lost his flag to Kateshumbwa Dicksons who was a new kid on the block, however, to Dr. Tumwesigye all his hopes were never cust in a stone, he opted to contest as an independent candidate, an option that has complicated predictions on either side of the political spectrum in Sheema Municipality. All witnessed on grounds in Sheema between the supporters of the two giants are running battles.
However, an independent poll conducted by this website put both Kateshumbwa and Dr. Elioda at 50%, 50% weighing scale meaning if nothing changes between now and January 13th, Sheema Municipality may witness a rerun or falls in the hands of the formidable FDC opposition in Sheema Municipality.
In the Kiruhura District woman MP race, the victory margin for Sheila Mwine is still lagging by 10% however at the moment the independent poll puts her at 40%. This literary means that if elections were held tonight Sheila Mwiine would lose to Rwenduru Jovans with 10%. The independent poll shows that Jovan is in the lead with 50% a cause for Mwiine to step up his game in the remaining 8 days to the poll to raise the 10% or 11% to be on the safe side.
In the small trading centers where Sheila hasn’t reached people, we spoke to still had hopes in her and promising to vote for her a sample analysis captured these voices.
Isaac Twesigye, “That’s why nobody should embrace these ‘scientific elections’ for example little has been heard about these flesh blood, but the incumbent has been a total disgrace to the people of Kiruhura, let’s go with Kabarangira Rose”.
Ainembabazi Shillah, “Sheila will lose. She can’t pick calls”.
Kiyombo Kami, “vote sheila”.
Saulo Arinda, “Akangye Naka Sheila haza 100%”
Nabimanya Christine, “Ego omwishiki weitu Sheila”.
The battle for Nyabushozi county is a no joking subject between a self-made Christopher Bakashaba who declared himself as a winner and the NRM flag bearer for Nyabushozi constituency contrary to the rules of the game and his left in the cold to stand as an independent, the other holding the flag of the ruling NRM in Nyabushozi constituency is Wilson Kashengyere who technically knocked out incumbent and NRM historical Col. Fred Mwesigye using the women vote.
Both Bakashaba and Kashwengyere peddled the same ideology and got rid of Col. Fred Mwesigye from the politics of Nyabushozi, however, having kicked him the equation for the two gentlemen in the boxy political ring for Nyabushozi Constituency is in balance.
The independent poll indicates that if an election was held today Nyabushozi would suffer a rerun. The polls show that Bakashaba stands at 50% and Kashwengyere too at 50%. The margin for salvation for one of the two to get win the hotly contested election in Nyabushozi Constituency is to tap into the undecided support of Col. Fred Mwesigye which now stands as a swing vote for any of the two to pull off the victory.
Battle for the Kazo district remains an unpredictable race to many between Dan Kimosho a communicator who turned a politician to tussle it out with incumbent Bafaki Gordon a teacher by profession.
Kimosho triumphed incumbent Bafaki in the NRM primaries last year hence claiming the party flag from Bafaki who believes that he can make it as an independent candidate but with an NRM leaning.
Kimosho picked an edge over Bafaki in the NRM primaries when he promised better service delivery in the dry cattle corridor or Nyabushozi. His message was about revamping the health sector which is cardinal in improving the livelihoods; however, Bafaki’s campaign message then fell short of capturing that.
But the independent poll reveals that higher chances for Bafaki to bounce back with a 55% if nothing changes between now and January 13th, while the same poll projects Kimosho at 45% at the moment falling short of 5% to cause a tie if the elections were to take place tonight.
The Race for Kazo District woman MP is another space for keen attention. The contest is between the former principal private secretary to President Museveni, Molly Kamukama, and Jeniffer Muhesi wife to Maj Gen. Muhesi.
It all went down bad for Molly Kamukama in the NRM Primaries when she lost to Jeniffer Muhesi with 16, 715 votes, while Muhesi merged victor with 16, 802. The margin wasn’t that big and that formed her ground to bounce back in the general elections as an independent candidate to face-off Jeniffer Muhesi. Molly thinks that that small percentage she lost to Muhesi can easily be covered in the general election, however, the end will justify the means.
For Muhesi and Kamukama one to merge victor has to tap into the 13, 286 votes that were given to independent Rhona Ruranga in the NRM primaries, however, at the moment the independent poll still shows that if the elections were to be held tonight Molly would trounce Muhesi with 54%.
